By Lynn Tan, ZDNet Asia 29/01/2008 URL:
http://www.zdnetasia.com/news/communications/0,39044192,62037124,00.htm
IDC has revealed its top 10 telecommunications predictions for the
Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan (APEJ) in 2008. These include greater
demand for Web 2.0 and unified communications applications such as
collaboration tools within the enterprise, as well as increasing awareness in
IP-surveillance products.
In its report released earlier this month, the research house also
identified green communication technologies as a priority among businesses in
the region. As a result, products and services that are environmentally
friendly, such as videoconferencing, are expected to gain traction.
Top 10 telecom trends in APEJ for 2008
1. Multimedia applications Enterprise adoption of WLAN (wireless LAN) is
expected to grow when the 802.11n standard is ratified in 2008, IDC predicted.
This is because the 802.11n standard will "remove obstacles that have
previously impeded" enterprise-wide adoption of WLAN and is expected to pave
the way for larger scale deployment.
In addition to improved security, bandwidth and range, the standard is
likely to enable the "seamless delivery" of unified mobile applications--which
the current combination of wired and wireless networks has problems tackling.
As such, its technological strengths will drive greater usage of multimedia
applications such as videoconferencing, IPTV (Internet Protocol TV),
video-on-demand, multiroom DVR (digital video recorder) and voice over
WLAN.
2. Streaming services IDC noted that although data streaming has been around
for a while, its performance on GPRS (general packet radio service) and 3G
networks has been "too slow and too inefficient". However, the arrival of HSDPA
(High-Speed Downlink Packet Access)which could deliver speeds of 3.6Mbps
or greater"breathes new life" into music and video streaming, as well as
"bring mobile TV into reality".
Streaming services are expected to enhance operators' revenues as long as
tariff plans are simple and content has appeal, said the analyst firm.
3. All-IP mobile core network According to IDC, there will be more APEJ
mobile operators migrating to an all-IP mobile core network in 2008. GSM
operators that do not have a 3G license and are looking to roll out the
next-generation wireless data services are expected to migrate their mobile
switching center, base-station controllers, customer care and billing systems,
SMS (short messaging service) and other value-added voice services to an all-IP
core.
This is because an all-IP mobile core network provides operators with
flexibility in scaling up to new bandwidth-hungry applications while preparing
for a future 4G-network design at the same time, the report noted.
4. Mobile 2.0 applications The introduction of HSDPA, coupled with the rise
of Web 2.0 technologiessuch as blogging and video sharingwill help
create opportunities for mobile operators, IDC noted.
"Mobile versions of various Web 2.0 applications will accustom subscribers
to use their mobile phones for communications and social networking purposes,"
the research house said. "As users become more comfortable and more compelled
to use their phone to access the Internet, operators are posed to gain from
greater data usage."
According to IDC, most Asian carriers recognize that creative content
development could lead to enhanced revenue, and as such, mobile operators are
expected to be "very active" in developing and pushing mobile 2.0 applications
in 2008.
5. Opportunities in verticals As "highly customized service brings higher
premium", the telecommunications industry has been placing great emphasis on
delivering tailored products for various industry verticals, IDC said.
The study predicted that the gaming, healthcare, hospitality, off-shoring
and retail sectors in APEJ will hold great revenue potential for telcos over
the next few years.
6. Eco-friendly communication services While server and datacenter
consolidation will be one of the immediate focus points of making IT
environmentally friendly, videoconferencing is another area that will become
increasingly popular as it "resonates well with "green IT", the report
said.
"Enterprises will increase pressure on their partners and suppliers to
provide 'green' solutions, not only for the purposes of meeting environmental
compliance regulations, but also from genuine concern for the environment," IDC
said. It expects more green initiatives in 2008 and beyond.
Wireless communication networks Wireless communication networks will become
more popular in certain markets as mobile operators use the technology to offer
unlimited voice call that resemble fixed-line services, IDC predicted. It added
that fixed-line penetration remains low in a number of emerging markets such as
Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
8. IP surveillance With IP-surveillance tools currently being deployed in
Beijing, China, as part of the 2008 Olympics security plan, 2008 is set to be a
"big" year for the technology. "Businesses will be receptive to IP surveillance
due to increased security concerns, as well as IP surveillance's cost
effectiveness," IDC said.
The emerging technology will become popular in the gaming, financial
services and retail industries, the study noted, citing physical security as a
primary concern for these vertical industries.
9. Unified communications and Web 2.0 As the gap between personal and
business communication narrows, there is an emerging focus on Web 2.0 and
unified communications (UC) offerings for the enterprise, IDC noted.
"Enterprises will move beyond UC and start embracing Web 2.0 with a focus on
collaboration, customer analytics and targeted smart search applications in
2008."
According to the report, the need for constant presence, information and
more effective communication and collaborative workflows are factors driving
the adoption of UC and Web 2.0 applications at the workplace. IDC predicted
that 2008 will be the year where these services will gain traction in the
enterprise space.
10. HSDPA and mobile WiMax HSDPA and mobile WiMax will "cooperate and
compete" for market share in the APEJ wireless broadband markets--where HSDPA
will be the "winner" for 3G carriers and mobile WiMax the "winner" for 2G
carriers as well as fixed-line providers, predicted IDC.
It noted that wireless broadband technology is a cost-effective offering
that could address the demand for connectivity in markets that have moderate to
high broadband household penetration, as well as households that are still not
connected to the Internet or even the analog telephony POTS (Plain Old
Telephone Service).